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How to Gamble on the Elections
Finance issues can intersect our lives in interesting ways.
Let’s take this year’s election. Chances are, you and your friends are chattering endlessly – maybe viciously - about the campaign. Will Barack Obama take it? Can John McCain triumph? Sometimes these debates can get a little too intense, but there is a fun way to let off a little steam: by wagering real money on the big, fall race.
Now, this isn’t something you do with the family food money. Rather, this is a good use for coins found under the couch.
How can you bet on the big race? There are a few ways. Domestically, the University of Iowa sponsors real money election markets where you can wager real money on the campaign. This is all for, ahhh, research purposes, so it is perfectly legal. The Iowa market has had an uncanny ability to predict past election campaigns. Currently, Sen. Obama is a clear favorite in the Iowa market. If you like Sen. McCain’s chances, you could make some money.
Sen. Obama also leads in the other trading markets. Among the most popular of these is www.tradesports.com which does its political trading at www.intrade.com. Sen. Obama leads in this market by nearly 20 points.
But non-money polls show a much tighter race. An average of polls by RealClearPolitics.com has Sen. Obama up by 1.9 percentage points over Sen. McCain. If the standard pollsters are right, which would be unusual at this stage of the game, it might pay to visit the online election markets and make a small wager.
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